{
  "study_id": "NCT04312269",
  "agent": "baseline",
  "run": 4,
  "p_primary_hypothesis_supported": 0.12,
  "effect_direction": "null",
  "effect_size_90pct_interval": {"low": -0.45, "high": 0.75, "metric": "Cohen's d, between-group difference in WMFT change (TMR minus sham), positive = more improvement with TMR"},
  "moderator_prediction": "SWS-only TMR likely comparable to or slightly better than all-phase TMR, since lab TMR effects appear in NREM2/SWS and not REM; differences between TMR arms will be unresolvable at this sample size.",
  "claim_ids_used": [],
  "rationale": "TMR lab memory effect is small (g=0.29) and should be smaller for transfer to a generalized, objective motor-function test (WMFT) after weeks of home/lab MyoCI training in chronic stroke. Both arms receive identical training, so the comparator is strong. With 70 planned across four arms (~17 per arm), power to detect d~0.2-0.3 is roughly 10-15%. Double masking limits expectancy. Long recruitment (since 2020, still recruiting) suggests possible under-enrollment. Probability of a significant all-phase-vs-sham WMFT difference is low, slightly above alpha allowing for a possible genuine effect or pooled contrast."
}