{
  "study_id": "NCT05047120",
  "agent": "baseline",
  "run": 2,
  "p_primary_hypothesis_supported": 0.63,
  "effect_direction": "favours intervention",
  "effect_size_90pct_interval": {"low": 0.0, "high": 2.0, "metric": "Between-arm difference in 0-10 NRS pain change (positive = more pain reduction with HYP-CT)"},
  "moderator_prediction": "Higher-baseline-pain patients show larger absolute session drops (more room to fall); neuropathic vs nociceptive difference likely small or not significant, if anything nociceptive/musculoskeletal pain responds slightly more to immediate hypnotic analgesia.",
  "claim_ids_used": [],
  "rationale": "The first primary outcome is the immediate pre-to-post-session NRS drop, self-reported and unblinded to participants. Hypnosis reliably produces short-term self-reported analgesia (g about 0.5-0.75 experimental; about 0.35 procedural), while an education session should produce little immediate relief. Repeated measures (8 sessions) add power even with n=88 (smaller after attrition in acute inpatient rehab). The comparator is active and attention-matched, which shrinks the difference, and small academic trials often land near the significance threshold. If the report switches to 4-week weekly average pain as its primary, the chance of success falls sharply. Net probability is moderately above a coin flip."
}