{
  "study_id": "NCT05351541",
  "agent": "baseline",
  "run": 3,
  "p_primary_hypothesis_supported": 0.84,
  "effect_direction": "favours intervention",
  "effect_size_90pct_interval": {"low": 2, "high": 20, "metric": "Mean change in BPI interference, 0-70 scale, baseline to 1 month (positive = reduction)"},
  "moderator_prediction": "none detectable; with ~7 per arm, add-on differences will be underpowered. If anything, zolpidem arms may show slightly smaller reductions (blunted/less-remembered acute experience), modafinil arms similar to placebo.",
  "claim_ids_used": [],
  "rationale": "Resolution is effectively a pooled pre-post test: every participant gets psilocybin with therapy support, the outcome is self-reported, and enrolment of treatment-refractory patients invites regression to the mean. The primer puts single-arm symptom pre-post significance above 90%. Functional unblinding and expectancy toward psilocybin add to within-person change. Deductions: small n (~30, possibly fewer completers), chronic pain outcomes respond less to expectancy than acute ones, variable doses (1-30 mg) may dilute effect, sedative/stimulant add-ons may alter experience, and the report may emphasise between-arm contrasts or pain intensity over pooled BPI interference. Expected reduction roughly 8-10 points on a baseline near 30."
}