{
  "study_id": "NCT05351541",
  "agent": "baseline",
  "run": 5,
  "p_primary_hypothesis_supported": 0.85,
  "effect_direction": "favours intervention",
  "effect_size_90pct_interval": {"low": 3, "high": 20, "metric": "Mean change in BPI interference, 0-70 scale, baseline to 1 month (positive = reduction)"},
  "moderator_prediction": "Probably none detectable with about 30 participants split four ways (roughly 7 per arm). If anything, the zolpidem-containing arms may show smaller reductions, because sedation may blunt the acute psychedelic experience, while modafinil is unlikely to change the size of the reduction.",
  "claim_ids_used": [],
  "rationale": "The primary hypothesis is a pooled pre-post change and every participant gets psilocybin with preparation and integration therapy, so it works like a single-arm study. It is an open-label-like, self-reported chronic pain outcome in people who enrolled at a symptomatic peak, so regression to the mean, expectancy and therapy contact all push toward a significant drop. The primer puts the base rate for single-arm pre-post studies above 90%. I shade it down because the sample is small (about 30), doses vary from 1 to 30 mg, some arms add drugs that may dampen the effect, and dropouts could matter. I expect a baseline BPI interference of about 30-40 and a mean reduction of about 10 points."
}