{
  "study_id": "NCT06041152",
  "agent": "baseline",
  "run": 1,
  "p_primary_hypothesis_supported": 0.08,
  "effect_direction": "null",
  "effect_size_90pct_interval": {"low": -6, "high": 9, "metric": "Percent difference in SynVesT-1 volume of distribution, psilocybin vs placebo (positive = higher density after psilocybin)"},
  "moderator_prediction": "none detectable; if any trend, aMCI participants might show a slightly larger relative increase because of lower baseline synaptic density, but with 4 healthy participants split across arms no moderator test is interpretable",
  "claim_ids_used": [],
  "rationale": "Pilot with N=10 split over four arms (about 5 psilocybin vs 5 placebo), so power to detect anything short of a very large effect is minimal. Objective PET outcome removes the expectancy/unblinding boost that inflates psilocybin symptom trials. Animal work (pig SV2A PET) suggested modest increases of a few percent, but human SV2A PET after psilocybin in healthy volunteers has not shown clear increases, and test-retest variability of SV2A VT (~5-10%) is comparable to plausible effects. Objective outcomes rarely move in small trials; base rate for a significant primary result here is low. Some chance of a nominal positive in hippocampus via multiple regions, hence not near zero."
}