{
  "study_id": "NCT06041152",
  "agent": "baseline",
  "run": 2,
  "p_primary_hypothesis_supported": 0.12,
  "effect_direction": "null",
  "effect_size_90pct_interval": {"low": -6.0, "high": 9.0, "metric": "Percent difference in SynVesT-1 volume of distribution, psilocybin vs placebo (positive = higher density after psilocybin)"},
  "moderator_prediction": "none detectable; if anything aMCI participants (lower baseline hippocampal SV2A, more room to rise) might show a slightly larger change, but n=6 vs n=4 split over two drug arms gives no power to show it",
  "claim_ids_used": [],
  "rationale": "Pilot with N=10 split across four arms (~5 psilocybin vs ~5 placebo). SV2A PET test-retest variability is roughly 3-10%, and between-subject variance in VT is larger, so only a very large effect (>10-15%) could reach significance. Animal data suggest modest synaptogenesis after psychedelics, but human SV2A PET after psilocybin has so far shown small or null changes at one week. Objective outcome removes the expectancy/unblinding advantage that inflates psilocybin symptom trials. Pilot small-sample effects are noisy; a nominally significant regional finding is possible via multiple regions (hippocampus, DLPFC, whole brain), which keeps probability above floor. Most likely: non-significant, small positive point estimate described as exploratory."
}