{
  "study_id": "NCT06041152",
  "agent": "baseline",
  "run": 3,
  "p_primary_hypothesis_supported": 0.08,
  "effect_direction": "null",
  "effect_size_90pct_interval": {"low": -6, "high": 8, "metric": "Percent difference in SynVesT-1 volume of distribution, psilocybin vs placebo (positive = higher density after psilocybin)"},
  "moderator_prediction": "none detectable; if anything, aMCI participants (lower baseline hippocampal SV2A) might show slightly larger change, but n=10 across four arms cannot resolve it",
  "claim_ids_used": [],
  "rationale": "Pilot with ~5 psilocybin vs ~5 placebo, split across aMCI and healthy strata; power is negligible for the few-percent SV2A changes plausible from rodent plasticity work. Objective PET outcome removes expectancy/unblinding advantages that inflate psychedelic symptom trials. Prior human SV2A PET after psilocybin in healthy adults did not show robust group-level increases, and SynVesT-1 VT test-retest variability (~5-10%) rivals any plausible effect. Primary completion 2026-07 with no report yet; small exploratory PET studies usually report null or trend-level, perhaps regional, findings. Small chance of a nominally significant regional result (e.g., hippocampus) counted as primary."
}