{
  "study_id": "NCT06041152",
  "agent": "baseline",
  "run": 4,
  "p_primary_hypothesis_supported": 0.1,
  "effect_direction": "null",
  "effect_size_90pct_interval": {"low": -6, "high": 9, "metric": "Percent difference in SynVesT-1 volume of distribution, psilocybin vs placebo (positive = higher density after psilocybin)"},
  "moderator_prediction": "none detectable; if anything aMCI participants show a slightly larger relative increase because of baseline synaptic loss, but n=6 vs 4 cannot resolve it",
  "claim_ids_used": [],
  "rationale": "Pilot with N=10 split across four arms (about 5 psilocybin vs 5 placebo), so power is very low for anything short of a large effect. The outcome is an objective PET measure with test-retest variability of roughly 5-10%, which blinding problems and expectancy cannot inflate. Pig studies have shown SV2A increases after psilocybin, but human SV2A PET after a single dose has generally shown no clear change, and effects from animal studies tend to shrink in humans. The scan comes one week after the second dose, so any rise would be small. The most likely report is a null primary result, possibly with a nominal regional trend described as exploratory. Publication lag also lowers the chance of a clean positive result."
}