{
  "study_id": "NCT06041152",
  "agent": "baseline",
  "run": 5,
  "p_primary_hypothesis_supported": 0.12,
  "effect_direction": "null",
  "effect_size_90pct_interval": {"low": -6, "high": 9, "metric": "Percent difference in SynVesT-1 volume of distribution, psilocybin vs placebo (positive = higher density after psilocybin)"},
  "moderator_prediction": "aMCI participants may show a slightly larger increase than healthy participants (lower baseline synaptic density leaves more room for change), but with ~2-3 per cell no reliable moderator difference will be detectable; forecast none.",
  "claim_ids_used": [],
  "rationale": "Pilot with N=10 split over four arms (~5 psilocybin vs ~5 placebo), objective PET outcome where expectancy/unblinding cannot inflate the effect. Preclinical pig data showed modest (~5%) SV2A increases after psilocybin; human SV2A PET after a single dose in healthy adults has not shown clear increases one week later. Test-retest variability of SV2A VT is ~5-10%, so a plausible true effect of a few percent is far below detection power at this sample size. Objective-outcome and small-pilot base rates point to a null or nonsignificant trend; small chance of a nominally significant regional finding via multiple regions (hippocampus, DLPFC)."
}