{
  "study_id": "NCT06041152",
  "agent": "framework",
  "run": 2,
  "p_primary_hypothesis_supported": 0.12,
  "effect_direction": "favours intervention",
  "effect_size_90pct_interval": {"low": -6, "high": 12, "metric": "Percent difference in SynVesT-1 volume of distribution, psilocybin vs placebo (positive = higher density after psilocybin)"},
  "moderator_prediction": "aMCI participants may show a slightly larger relative increase (more lost synaptic density to restore), but with ~6 vs ~4 participants no subgroup difference will be detectable; effectively none.",
  "claim_ids_used": ["PM-0028", "PM-0401", "PM-0058", "PM-0062", "PM-0061", "PM-0372"],
  "rationale": "The framework equates belief strength with synaptic connection strength (PM-0058) and says psychedelics relax prior precision (PM-0028, PM-0401), so it leans toward a plastic, positive direction. But tissue changes slowly (PM-0062); structure forms through repeated booking (PM-0061), not two doses plus one week. SV2A density is a level-4 biomarker, the outcome class the framework expects to move least (PM-0372 is precedent, not a guarantee). The decisive factor is statistical: N=10 across four arms, roughly 5 vs 5, with PET test-retest variability around 5-10%. A plausible true effect of a few percent is very unlikely to reach p<0.05. I expect a small positive, non-significant point estimate, framed as exploratory."
}