{
  "study_id": "NCT06041152",
  "agent": "framework",
  "run": 3,
  "p_primary_hypothesis_supported": 0.1,
  "effect_direction": "favours intervention",
  "effect_size_90pct_interval": {"low": -6, "high": 10, "metric": "Percent difference in SynVesT-1 volume of distribution, psilocybin vs placebo (positive = higher density after psilocybin)"},
  "moderator_prediction": "Weak tendency for healthy participants to show larger change: tissue is 'slower to change, not impossible', and a less degraded substrate should rebook more readily than aMCI tissue; with ~2-3 per cell no moderator effect is detectable.",
  "claim_ids_used": ["PM-0028", "PM-0401", "PM-0058", "PM-0061", "PM-0062", "PM-0372", "PM-0147"],
  "rationale": "The framework ties belief strength to synaptic connection strength (PM-0058) and says psychedelics act on prior precision (PM-0028, PM-0401), so a small positive shift in synaptic density is directionally plausible. But this is a level-4 biomarker outcome, and the framework says tissue changes slowly, by repeated booking (PM-0061, PM-0062); two doses with no integration practice give little repeated booking. Physiology effects are possible (PM-0372) but smallest where perception is not involved. Decisively, N=10 across four arms (about 5 vs 5 for the pooled contrast) gives negligible power for a modest PET change with typical SynVesT-1 test-retest variability; significance is unlikely."
}