{
  "study_id": "NCT06632691",
  "agent": "baseline",
  "run": 1,
  "p_primary_hypothesis_supported": 0.45,
  "effect_direction": "favours intervention",
  "effect_size_90pct_interval": {"low": -0.3, "high": 2.0, "metric": "Mean difference in VAS pain, 0-10 (positive = less pain with the headset)"},
  "moderator_prediction": "Anxious patients benefit more: hypnosis/VR effects are larger on anxiety (SMD ~0.43) and anxiety amplifies procedural pain, leaving more room to reduce it; sex difference likely small or none.",
  "claim_ids_used": [],
  "rationale": "Randomised, unblinded, no-headset control with a self-reported immediate procedural pain outcome favours a positive result (weak comparator, expectation effects large for procedural pain). But the recent procedural hypnosis meta-analysis gives pain SMD ~0.35; the cited Chinese colonoscopy trial (2-point gain) should be halved, and rectosigmoidoscopy is less painful than colonoscopy, compressing VAS (floor effects, mean maybe 3-4, SD ~2.5). Expected difference ~0.8-1 point, d ~0.35-0.4. With ~50 per arm, power for d=0.4 is roughly 50%. Net probability of a significant difference slightly below a coin flip."
}