{
  "study_id": "NCT06632691",
  "agent": "baseline",
  "run": 3,
  "p_primary_hypothesis_supported": 0.5,
  "effect_direction": "favours intervention",
  "effect_size_90pct_interval": {"low": -0.3, "high": 2.2, "metric": "Mean difference in VAS pain, 0-10 (positive = less pain with the headset)"},
  "moderator_prediction": "Anxious patients and women benefit more: higher baseline anxiety and pain leave more room for hypnotic/distraction analgesia, and anxiety amplifies procedural pain.",
  "claim_ids_used": [],
  "rationale": "Unblinded RCT, n=100 (~50/arm), VR hypnosis vs no headset, self-reported pain immediately after a short procedure. Primer: hypnosis for invasive procedures pain SMD ~0.35; the no-treatment comparator and lack of blinding inflate this, pushing it toward ~0.45. Rectosigmoidoscopy pain is modest (mean perhaps 3-4/10, SD ~2.5), so the expected difference is ~1 point, not the 2-point colonoscopy pilot gain the trial was powered on (halve pilot effects). At d~0.4-0.45 with 50/arm, power is about 50-60%; floor effects in a milder procedure cut it slightly. Net about a coin flip."
}