{
  "study_id": "NCT06632691",
  "agent": "baseline",
  "run": 5,
  "p_primary_hypothesis_supported": 0.45,
  "effect_direction": "favours intervention",
  "effect_size_90pct_interval": {"low": -0.4, "high": 2.0, "metric": "Mean difference in VAS pain, 0-10 (positive = less pain with the headset)"},
  "moderator_prediction": "Anxious patients (and possibly women, who report more pain at endoscopy) benefit more, since VR hypnosis acts largely via anxiety reduction and distraction; likely underpowered to show it.",
  "claim_ids_used": [],
  "rationale": "Open-label RCT, VR hypnosis vs no headset, self-reported pain immediately after the procedure: a weak comparator and an outcome that favours the intervention. The Liu 2022 colonoscopy trial showed a 2-point median gain, but that was a single small trial, and rectosigmoidoscopy is less painful (floor effect: mean VAS likely 3-4, SD about 2.3). Following the primer, halve it to about 1 point, roughly d 0.4-0.45, in line with hypnosis for procedures (SMD 0.35) plus some inflation from the absence of blinding. With 50 per arm, power at d 0.45 is about 55%. Probability just under a coin flip."
}