{
  "study_id": "NCT07407595",
  "agent": "baseline",
  "run": 2,
  "p_primary_hypothesis_supported": 0.35,
  "effect_direction": "favours control",
  "effect_size_90pct_interval": {"low": -0.85, "high": 0.45, "metric": "Cohen's d for the between-group difference in change in excitability from baseline to post-cream (positive = excitability increases more, or falls less, in the pain-expectation group)"},
  "moderator_prediction": "Higher pain catastrophizing / kinesiophobia participants may show larger MEP suppression, as threat appraisal amplifies anticipatory motor inhibition; but with n=22 per arm any moderator test will be underpowered and likely null.",
  "claim_ids_used": [],
  "rationale": "Small (n=44, ~22/arm) unblinded single-session lab study with an objective neurophysiological outcome. Nocebo effects are reliable on self-report but expectation effects on objective outcomes are much smaller (OLP objective ~0.09). TMS MEP data are noisy, so power for a realistic d of ~0.3-0.5 in a group x time interaction is low. Prior literature on pain anticipation/threat tends to show reduced corticospinal excitability in hand muscles, so the likely sign is negative. Offsetting factors: three I/O parameters and two post time points give several chances for a significant result ('any registered parameter'), and small lab studies often report something significant. Pre-registered psychology base rate ~44%; adjusted down for power and objective outcome, up slightly for multiplicity."
}