{
  "study_id": "NCT07407595",
  "agent": "baseline",
  "run": 3,
  "p_primary_hypothesis_supported": 0.3,
  "effect_direction": "null",
  "effect_size_90pct_interval": {"low": -0.6, "high": 0.6, "metric": "Cohen's d for the between-group difference in change in excitability from baseline to post-cream (positive = excitability increases more, or falls less, in the pain-expectation group)"},
  "moderator_prediction": "Possibly larger shifts in high pain-catastrophizing/kinesiophobia participants, since threat appraisal should scale with these traits; but with 22 per arm any moderator test will be underpowered and likely inconclusive.",
  "claim_ids_used": [],
  "rationale": "Small (n=44, ~22/arm) unblinded single-lab basic-science study with an objective neurophysiological outcome (TMS I/O curves), where expectation effects are typically small (objective outcomes ~0.1 in placebo literature). MEPs are noisy; power for d<0.8 is poor. Direction is theoretically ambiguous: anxiety/threat can raise excitability, while pain anticipation often inhibits motor output in the threatened limb. Two-sided rule and three Boltzmann parameters at two time points give some forking-path chance of a significant group x time effect, raising probability above pure power. Pre-registered-experiment base rate ~44%, adjusted down for objective outcome and low power."
}