{
  "study_id": "NCT07407595",
  "agent": "framework",
  "run": 3,
  "p_primary_hypothesis_supported": 0.35,
  "effect_direction": "favours control",
  "effect_size_90pct_interval": {"low": -0.95, "high": 0.45, "metric": "Cohen's d for the between-group difference in change in corticospinal excitability from baseline to post-cream (positive = excitability increases more, or falls less, in the pain-expectation group)"},
  "moderator_prediction": "Higher pain catastrophizing / kinesiophobia participants respond more (larger excitability drop), because fear raises the credibility and weight of the threat message and arousal enlarges the entry.",
  "claim_ids_used": ["PM-0585", "PM-0845", "PM-0601", "PM-1286", "PM-0372", "PM-0289", "PM-0086"],
  "rationale": "The framework prices threat heaviest and fear amplifies it, so an authoritative pain warning should render a real anticipatory state; Mesmer-style somatic effects imply body-level change is possible. But corticospinal excitability of FDI is a level-4 physiological outcome beyond the felt render layer, and the adjacent outcome (apprehension, HRV) may move instead of the named one. Literature on pain anticipation tends to show motor inhibition (reduced MEPs), so the sign leans negative. With n=44 between-groups, noisy Boltzmann parameters, unmasked design and no real pain, power is low; multiple parameters and timepoints add some chance of a significant interaction."
}