{
  "study_id": "NCT07407595",
  "agent": "framework",
  "run": 4,
  "p_primary_hypothesis_supported": 0.33,
  "effect_direction": "favours control",
  "effect_size_90pct_interval": {"low": -1.0, "high": 0.4, "metric": "Cohen's d for the between-group difference in change in excitability from baseline to post-cream (positive = excitability increases more, or falls less, in the pain-expectation group)"},
  "moderator_prediction": "Higher pain catastrophizing / kinesiophobia participants show larger excitability change, because fear raises the credibility and weight of the threat message and arousal mints a larger entry.",
  "claim_ids_used": ["PM-0585", "PM-0845", "PM-0601", "PM-0124", "PM-0372", "PM-1286", "PM-0289"],
  "rationale": "The framework predicts threat information from an authoritative experimenter is priced heavily (PM-0585, PM-0124), especially in fearful receivers (PM-0845, PM-0601), so an anticipatory nocebo state should form. But corticospinal excitability is a level-4 physiological outcome beyond the render layer (PM-1286, PM-0372), and an adjacent outcome (HRV, self-reported apprehension) may move instead (PM-0289). General knowledge: pain anticipation tends to suppress MEPs (protective motor inhibition), yet TMS I/O curves are noisy, n=22 per arm, unmasked, three parameters and three time points. A significant group x time interaction is plausible but less likely than not; the most likely direction is reduced excitability in the pain-expectation group."
}