{
  "study_id": "NCT07611422",
  "agent": "baseline",
  "run": 1,
  "p_primary_hypothesis_supported": 0.15,
  "effect_direction": "null",
  "effect_size_90pct_interval": {"low": -0.2, "high": 0.45, "metric": "Cohen's d for positive-information vs neutral-information on PSS-10 at 4 weeks (positive = less stress with positive information)"},
  "moderator_prediction": "Expectancy effect, if any, slightly larger in the cold-shower arms: the rationale is more credible and salient for an unusual, effortful practice, and cold exposure gives a vivid bodily cue that reinforces the suggestion; warm-shower 'benefits' framing is less believable. Interaction unlikely to reach significance.",
  "claim_ids_used": [],
  "rationale": "Brief one-time verbal rationale, outcome is a trait-like 1-month recall measure (PSS-10) in healthy volunteers 4 weeks later. Primer: expectation effects are largest for short, acute self-reports and small for chronic outcomes weeks later; OLP non-clinical self-report ~0.29. Realistic d ~0.1-0.2. With ~60 per expectancy level (less after attrition), power for d=0.2 is ~20%. Pre-registered base rate ~44%, adjusted sharply down for power. Some upside from self-report outcome, participant-only masking, snowball-recruited sample possibly receptive, and multiple analysis routes (main effect or interaction with time) counted as success."
}