{
  "study_id": "NCT07611422",
  "agent": "framework",
  "run": 2,
  "p_primary_hypothesis_supported": 0.22,
  "effect_direction": "favours intervention",
  "effect_size_90pct_interval": {"low": -0.15, "high": 0.5, "metric": "Cohen's d for positive-information vs neutral-information on PSS-10 at 4 weeks (positive = less stress with positive information)"},
  "moderator_prediction": "Cold-shower participants respond more: the rationale rides on an arousing bodily render repeated four times a week and fits a common cultural belief that cold builds resilience, while the warm-shower rationale is less compatible and has no felt signal to verify it.",
  "claim_ids_used": ["PM-0056", "PM-0128", "PM-1353", "PM-0102", "PM-0113", "PM-1286", "PM-0110", "PM-0218", "PM-0137", "PM-0936"],
  "rationale": "The expectancy manipulation is a single spoken rationale to alert adults: one small deposit paying the normal tax (PM-0056, PM-0128). It gains some weight because it is attached to an enacted, repeated routine (PM-1353, PM-0102) and PSS is a self-rated felt state (PM-1286). In the cold arm the body supplies an arousing render the rationale can price (PM-0113, PM-0110), and the claim fits prior cultural belief (PM-0218). Daily life rarely contradicts it (PM-0137, PM-0936). Still, the realistic effect is small (d about 0.15-0.2). With about 60 per expectancy arm, power is low, so significance is unlikely."
}