{
  "study_id": "NCT07731568",
  "agent": "baseline",
  "run": 1,
  "p_primary_hypothesis_supported": 0.2,
  "effect_direction": "null",
  "effect_size_90pct_interval": {"low": -1.5, "high": 3.0, "metric": "Between-group difference in GAD-7 change, 0-21 scale, at 4 weeks (positive = larger reduction with NPT)"},
  "moderator_prediction": "Students with higher baseline anxiety may show larger absolute reductions in both arms (more room to improve, regression to the mean); any NPT-vs-CBT difference is likely to appear there if anywhere, but the trial is too small to detect an interaction reliably.",
  "claim_ids_used": [],
  "rationale": "Two-arm RCT, n=55 (~27 per arm), active comparator (online group CBT of matched dose and structure), self-reported GAD-7 in a mild-to-moderate student sample (GAD-7 >=4). Bona fide active psychotherapies rarely differ; expected true difference is ~0-0.2 SD (~0-1 GAD-7 point, SD ~4). With ~27 per arm, power to detect d=0.3 is under 20%. Sponsor allegiance to NPT (developer's own therapy, outcome assessor-only masking, self-report outcome) and flexible analysis (group x time or 4- or 8-week contrasts) raise the chance of a reported significant advantage above the pure power figure. Forecast about 20%."
}