{
  "study_id": "NCT07731568",
  "agent": "baseline",
  "run": 2,
  "p_primary_hypothesis_supported": 0.22,
  "effect_direction": "favours intervention",
  "effect_size_90pct_interval": {"low": -1.5, "high": 3.0, "metric": "Between-group difference in GAD-7 change, 0-21 scale, at 4 weeks (positive = larger reduction with NPT)"},
  "moderator_prediction": "Higher-baseline-anxiety students may show slightly larger NPT advantage (more room to change, acceptance-based Morita elements suit ruminative worry), but the trial is too small to detect an interaction; likely reported as none.",
  "claim_ids_used": [],
  "rationale": "Two bona fide group psychotherapies head to head; active-comparator psychotherapy differences are typically small (d ~0.1-0.2). With n=55 (~27 per arm), power to detect even d=0.5 is under 50%; realistic d~0.2-0.3 gives power ~15-25%. Mild GAD-7 inclusion (>=4) limits room for differential change and both arms will improve through regression to the mean and group support. Upward adjustments: developer allegiance (sponsor originated NPT), single-site Chinese trial with self-report outcome, and outcome-assessor-only masking, which raise odds of a nominally significant result or favourable framing. Net probability near 0.2; point estimate ~0.7 GAD-7 points favouring NPT with a wide interval."
}