{
  "study_id": "NCT07731568",
  "agent": "baseline",
  "run": 4,
  "p_primary_hypothesis_supported": 0.16,
  "effect_direction": "favours intervention",
  "effect_size_90pct_interval": {"low": -1.5, "high": 3.0, "metric": "Between-group difference in GAD-7 change, 0-21 scale, at 4 weeks (positive = larger reduction with NPT)"},
  "moderator_prediction": "Higher-baseline-anxiety students may show larger absolute GAD-7 drops in both arms (more room, regression to the mean); any NPT advantage, if present, would more plausibly appear there, but the trial is too small to detect an interaction.",
  "claim_ids_used": [],
  "rationale": "Two active, structurally matched 4-week online group therapies (Morita-derived NPT vs CBT); head-to-head bona fide psychotherapy comparisons usually show small or no differences. With ~55 participants (~27/arm), power to detect even d=0.5 is under 50%, and a realistic difference (d~0.1-0.3, i.e. ~0.5-1 GAD-7 point) is far below detectable. Low baseline threshold (GAD-7>=4) compresses change. Developer allegiance (sponsor created NPT), outcome-assessor-only masking on a self-report scale, and flexible choice of 4- vs 8-week analysis nudge probability above pure chance of a false positive. Point estimate slightly favouring NPT, interval spanning zero."
}