{
  "study_id": "NCT07731568",
  "agent": "baseline",
  "run": 5,
  "p_primary_hypothesis_supported": 0.2,
  "effect_direction": "null",
  "effect_size_90pct_interval": {"low": -1.5, "high": 3.5, "metric": "Between-group difference in GAD-7 change, 0-21 scale, at 4 weeks (positive = larger reduction with NPT)"},
  "moderator_prediction": "Higher-baseline-anxiety students may show a slightly larger NPT advantage, since there is more room to improve and Morita-style acceptance or exposure suits people who ruminate. The trial is far too small to detect this moderator reliably.",
  "claim_ids_used": [],
  "rationale": "This is a superiority test against an active, structurally matched comparator: online group CBT with the same dose and format. With n=55 (about 27 per arm), 80% power needs roughly d>=0.75, which is about 3 GAD-7 points. Differences between bona fide active psychotherapies are usually small (d around 0.1-0.2), so the true gap is likely under 1 point. Several things raise the odds a little: the developer runs the trial (allegiance), the outcome is self-reported, the NPT arm is novel and culturally tailored, only the assessor is blinded, and 'or 8 weeks' gives more than one chance to reach significance. Mild entry threshold (GAD-7>=4) limits room to change. Expect both arms to improve and the difference to be non-significant."
}