Forecasting study · Data

The files

Everything the study produced, as plain files. The folder files/ keeps each hashed file under its original path, so the hashes can be checked directly.

Check the hashes

Download files/, then from inside it:

shasum -a 256 MANIFEST.sha256 # 7a76df42b41960e01e378445fb85eab4cef78487cb64510f1ddd3b0d022aed68
shasum -a 256 -c MANIFEST.sha256

Main files

claims.csv: The claim register: every claim, its source sentence, testability, closest earlier work, relation, and the first-pass verdict where it changed
studies.csv: The 256 pending studies found, with hypothesis, outcome, results check and flags
excluded.csv: Excluded studies (none: see the method page)
pilot_targets.json: The rule fixed in advance for scoring each of the ten trials
primer_baseline.md: The baseline forecasters' primer
primer_framework.md: The framework forecasters' primer
baseline.txt: Baseline instructions
framework.txt: Framework instructions
run_audit.tsv: Audit of all 100 forecast transcripts
MANIFEST.sha256: SHA-256 of all 144 hashed files
novelty.md: Novelty report
untestable.md: The 169 untestable claims and what would make each testable

Check the hashes

Main files

All hashed files